We have reached the beginning of the next bull market. If we look at history, these cycles are driven by many factors, including the events of the Bitcoin halving, changes in the macroeconomic landscape around the US elections and Federal Reserve interest rates, and the emergence of new Web3 and DeFi innovations. For example, agriculture was an important innovation that contributed to the previous cycle. The next cycle could potentially involve a combination of zero-knowledge proofs, new DeFi primitives such as recurring staking, and innovative blockchain stacks that are modular, composable, and ready to move assets and data between chains.
This article is part of CoinDesk's Crypto 2024 Forecast Package .
Each cycle is accompanied by a unique cultural narrative. The last cycle was dominated by art NFTs, driven by Beeple's $69 million sale at Christie's , as well as the rise of fine art enthusiasts at Sotheby's and Pace Gallery, and the PFP craze. The current cycle is expected to be driven by the SocialFi narrative, with platforms like Friend.Tech already setting the stage.
Institutional and normative discourses also play a crucial role. Last cycle, MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor introduced Bitcoin to corporate balance sheets, while this cycle traditional financial institutions and fintech giants clamored for crypto ETFs and launched stablecoins.
On the regulatory side, the United States continues to struggle with cryptocurrency regulation, forcing many projects to sell their new crypto products outside of the United States. That's why I say the next bull market will have a different geographic flavor, focused on Asia.
It's hard not to notice the hype around Asian cryptocurrencies. There was a stark contrast between the less glamorous fall conferences in the US and the lively scene at Korea Blockchain Week and Singapore's Token2049. Cities like Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila and Kuala Lumpur, to name a few major Indian cities, are home to large developer communities and thriving web3 scenes supported by government and enterprises. The booming Token2049 environment in Singapore, the real capital invested in crypto projects by Asia-Pacific investors, and the growing appetite for NFTs suggest that the region is poised to lead the next bull market.
As Asian governments compete for the top spot as crypto platforms, the United States appears to be standing in the way of its own crypto entrepreneurs. As a result, marketing firms are leaving the United States, companies are expanding into Asia, Europe and the Middle East to meet growing demand, and entrepreneurs are relocating to jurisdictions with stricter regulatory environments.
With Serotonin opening offices in the Asia Pacific region, I have witnessed the unique advantages these markets provide to growing crypto projects. Whether it's a tech-savvy, mobile-first audience or highly skilled developers looking to contribute to decentralized projects, the region is full of potential. There is a palpable enthusiasm for Web3 culture and a willingness to embrace new technologies, including SocialFi, which has become commonplace in the region thanks to the prominence of WeChat. ( SocialFi refers to applications that allow users to monetize their social interactions and control their data.)
Telegram, widely used for messaging in Asia's Web3 community, is already testing its in-app self-custody crypto wallet with users outside the US. Add to that the ease of regulation in places like Hong Kong and Singapore, and we're in the face of a potentially explosive crypto boom. We Americans find it incredible that, for example, Hong Kong company First Digital can launch its FDUSD stablecoin with regulatory approval, while fintech companies like PayPal face lawsuits to do so in the United States as well.
This “Asian speed”, as we affectionately call it at Serotonin, is a testament to the region's rapid adoption and contribution to Web3 technologies. I believe this dynamic will lead to the next bull market and bring a geographical narrative to the crypto cycle.
However, I believe this scenario will change 18 months after the next US elections. I hope there is clarity on cryptocurrency regulation in the United States, sparking a new round of corporate adoption and marketing to American consumers. During this period, the United States will also be a major driver of Web3 innovation and adoption, contributing to the growth of the global Web3 ecosystem with leadership positions in Asia and other markets.
In the meantime, our strategy is to use this time to grow our business by focusing on Asia. We facilitate the entry of Western projects into Asian markets by partnering with Eastern projects to gain global access and reach English speakers in Europe and the Middle East. Considering all this, the cryptocurrency world looks forward to a more diverse and dynamic era, driven by various global forces, with Asia leading the inevitable growth cycle.
This story was originally published on Coindesk.