Opinion: With Bitcoins Halving Months Away, It May Be Time To Go Riskon

Opinion: With Bitcoins Halving Months Away, It May Be Time To Go Riskon

More of a tradition than a fluke, the Christmas season is around the corner again and markets are looking good for a return to work. Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $35,000 in October, marking another all-time high for 2023. The year-to-date increase was due to unusual market trends, including the filing of a Bitcoin ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the exchange.

If you, like me, have been in the world of cryptocurrencies since 2014, you will agree that the holiday season brings a lot of excitement, especially this year. Everyone seems to agree that a bull run is on the way, so now is the time to keep an eye on the market and explore unique opportunities in multiple places—and consider your business approach.

Typical Christmas gathering?

The Christmas Parade brought joy and happiness to many people in the cryptocurrency world. Historically, this period brings increased trading volume, higher market activity and higher prices. However, conventions have been challenged in recent years and market dynamics have impacted them in unprecedented ways. Per year Take the global pandemic in 2020, as well as Elon Musk's tweets in 2021 and 2022. Cryptocurrencies have risen for reasons that no one can predict.

Related: Christmas for Bitcoin Over 35K? If that happens, thank Jerome Powell.

Predicting the behavior of the cryptocurrency market is similar to forecasting the weather. This is a difficult task. In recent years they have been producing December tires, a period affected by very challenging conditions including regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions.

Don't worry about ETFs - the Bitcoin reversal is coming soon.

Investors are waiting for the green light from the SEC to create a Bitcoin ETF. The theory is that ETFs attract institutional investors into cryptocurrency.

There is a sense of excitement that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will bring to the market. The Bitcoin halving event, which is scheduled for April 2024, is extremely important. This is due to the supply of 21 million Bitcoin coins. Major cryptocurrencies are mostly mined. Bitcoin halving refers to a method in which the number of new Bitcoins created in each block is reduced by 50%. This happens every 210,000 blocks (or approximately every four years). This halving will ensure that Bitcoin remains a rare and sought-after asset.

The upcoming halving has strengthened mainstream Bitcoin price predictions. Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki believes he will earn at least $100,000. Max Kaiser predicts a new record of $220,000. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor is as talented as ever, with a $1 million prize on the horizon. Estimates are based on historical trends and social influences. These and other unusual forces were behind the demonstrations we saw in October.

In my opinion, Bitcoin can easily break through the $69,000 mark and possibly surpass $169,000.

What happens if the ETF is not approved?

Analysts at financial services firm JPMorgan say that if the SEC has already rejected an ETF's application, it could sue the applicant. In August, the court ruled in favor of Grayscale against the SEC, clearing the way for Grayscale to turn its Bitcoin trust into a shell ETF. BlackRock, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest and others are vying to endorse the ETF.

Several Bitcoin ETFs could be approved within a few months. At least for now, it seems inevitable or even unavoidable.

Conflict in the Middle East

Geopolitical tensions and outright war are unusual features of the cryptocurrency world. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East raises concerns about how external factors are permeating the market. While the immediate impact may be unclear, investors have historically sought refuge in alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, during global crises. So far, the war has not had any impact on the cryptocurrency market, but as the situation develops, the market may see changes in sentiment and capital flows.

Three days after the war began, cryptocurrency prices fell and oil prices rose as traders speculated the war could disrupt supplies if it spread to neighboring countries. The world's busiest shipping lanes, such as the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal, are located in the Middle East. If this situation continues to worsen in these countries, it will increase economic risk.

Related : Bitcoin is evolving into a multi-asset network.

Spreading the war into the Sinai Peninsula and Suez region would increase the risk of attacks on energy and non-energy trade that passes through the Suez Canal, Pat Tucker of the Economist Intelligence Unit said in an article for CNBC, which accounts for 15 percent. This route transports crude oil, 9% of refined oil, and 8% of LNG tankers.

So far, this has not had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, but if the conflict continues to escalate, it could lead to increased price volatility as we enter the Christmas season.

Is it altcoin season?

As the holiday season approaches, traders are looking forward to the altcoin boom season. Based on historical data (looking at the past alternating periods of December 2017 and January 2021), we see that this movement begins right in December. I'm waiting for the next alternative season to start in December (with the help of the Bitcoin ETF approval) and until Bitcoin halves in April.

Bitcoin will likely be stuck at a relatively stable level until it is approved by the EFF, which means now might be a good time to start looking at altcoins. I'm particularly interested in niche sectors including GameFi and real world value (RWA) tokens. (Obligatory disclaimer: I've been wrong in the past and will be wrong again.) As altcoin season begins, tokens with real-world applications in these areas could pave the way in this direction.

This Christmas season promises that cryptodom will come, but the path is unknown. ETF controversies, global tensions, and potential altcoins all require vigilance. We can't always predict the future, but we can prepare for it by staying informed, managing risks and taking advantage of strategic opportunities. It's not just about celebrating, it's about the future of finance in the exciting world of cryptocurrencies.

Evan Luthra is a 28-year-old cryptocurrency entrepreneur who sold his company StudySocial at age 17 for $1.7 million and has created over 30 mobile apps since age 18. He became interested in cryptocurrency in 2014 and is currently creating CasaNFT. He has invested in more than 400 crypto projects.

This article is intended to provide general information and is not intended and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, opinions and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

In 2024, the real value of Bitcoin will be halved.

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